Duitsland

Value growth slowed down by economic crisis
In 2008 and 2009, the effects of the global credit crunch reached the German economy and impacted GDP and unemployment rates negatively, resulting in a dent in consumer spending confidence. Turnover in retailing grew significantly more slowly than seen earlier in the review period, and store-based retailing saw outlet and selling space declines. However, the retailing sector showed some resilience, with sales seeing a slowdown in growth rather than actual decline. Furthermore, in August 2009, the German economy showed signs of coming out of the recession, indicating that the downturn might be over sooner than previously expected.

Retailing impacted by insolvencies
The economic situation in 2009 resulted in a number of retailing companies sliding into bankruptcy. These companies were in a bad financial condition already, and were pushed over the edge by the economic crisis. The German government was unwilling to subsidise companies that were already in difficulties, offering support only to those facing bankruptcy as a direct result of the crisis. Among the players badly affected by the crisis in 2009 were Hertie, which shut down all outlets in the summer of that year; Arcandor, which was bailed out by the government at the last minute, but still faces an uncertain future; and Woolworth, which was forced to shut down over half of its outlets in 2009.

Large grocery chains lead sales
The five leading companies in retailing are the large German grocery chains Edeka, Lidl, Rewe, Aldi Süd and Aldi Nord. Together, they accounted for 28% of total retailing turnover in NBO terms in 2009, and all five saw solid turnover growth and share gains, building on their strong position even further. This was largely due to their strong positioning in terms of outlet numbers and selling space, the importance of the grocery channel in Germany. Turnover in grocery retailing makes up almost 50% of total store-based retailing turnover.

Non-store retailing continues to grow
With the rapid growth in use of the Internet, and a fast growing base of Internet savvy users, non-store retailing again outgrew the market in value terms in 2009. However, even this sector was impacted by the economic situation, and growth was significantly slower than seen earlier in the review period. Whilst Internet retailing gave a very positive impetus to non-store retailing, especially in consumer electronics, the decline in home shopping – caused by fierce competition from Internet retailing – and tobacco vending – caused by the general decline in the number of smokers in Germany – had a negative effect on the performance of the sector as a whole.

Sales forecast to pick up slowly
As the economic situation is set to improve steadily over the forecast period, retailing is expected to start growing more quickly again. Positive influences will continue to come from non-grocery retailers, especially electronics and appliances specialist retailers, and non-store retailing, again especially Internet retailing for consumer electronics. However, overall turnover growth for retailing is expected to remain slower than over the review period indicating that the aftermath of the credit crunch will continue to impact consumer spending behaviour for some time.

Laat een marktscan maken (Individuele marktbewerking)